Prediction of Gonzalo Bueno vs Cristian Garin at Lima 3 Challenger 11-08-25

• Cristian Garin has shown a slight edge on second serve performance, winning 44.43% of points compared to Gonzalo Bueno's 40.92%.
• Do serve and return stats influence match predictions? Yes, as greater effectiveness usually indicates a competitive advantage.
• In return games, Gonzalo Bueno is marginally ahead in winning points on opponents' second serve at 46.40%, compared to Garin's 46.37%.
• Bueno excels in first serve returns, achieving a higher percentage of 33.28% versus Garin's 29.59%.
• Under pressure, Gonzalo Bueno narrowly leads, saving 51.41% of breakpoints, while Garin saves 50.96%.
• Does match-winning percentage reflect form? Cristian Garin has a stronger record, winning 67.69% of matches over the past year, compared to Bueno's 58.44%.
• Both players excel on clay with a winning percentage of 64%. However, neither has performed well on I.hard surfaces.
• In terms of level and match experience, Garin has been more dominant in Challengers/ITF with a win rate of 82.86%, surpassing Bueno's 56.72%.
• Garin's recent opponents have had a higher average ranking of 200.38, whereas Bueno's were 301.05.
• Both players have impressive deciding set records, though Bueno edges out slightly with a 74% success rate compared to Garin's 68%.

Editorial Prediction (November 8, 2025, UTC):

Cristian Garin's recent performance stats highlight a consistent edge in various aspects of his game, particularly in his overall match-winning rate and experience against higher-ranked opponents. These factors contribute to predicting his match outcomes more reliably.

Gonzalo Bueno's strengths in first serve returns and breakpoint saves suggest he is a formidable opponent; however, his overall match experiences against lower-ranked opponents may impact his competitiveness in higher-level matches.

Considering current form, surface strengths, and tournament-level experience, Cristian Garin appears more likely to succeed in this matchup. His superior match record in Challengers/ITF and better second-serve statistics present a compelling argument for his victory in the upcoming tennis match.